Clinton Seeks to Offset Black Defections by Courting Hispanics

REGISTER TO VOTE!! WHEREVER YOU ARE!! ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE HISPANIC!!

This article by Hans Nichols addresses one of Senator Clinton's strategies for the upcoming 2008 election. Whether Latinos bite the apple put forth by Hillary will largely depend on the efforts of the other notable candidates such as Edwards, Richardson, and Obama.

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Representative Ciro Rodriguez picked up his phone in June and heard a familiar, raspy voice: It was former President Bill Clinton, asking the Texas Democrat to endorse his wife Hillary's White House bid.

``So far, they're the only campaign to contact me,'' said Rodriguez, former chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. He's mulling the request, and hasn't forgotten that the former president campaigned for him in last year's congressional election. ``He's done a lot for me,'' said Rodriguez.

Senator Clinton's campaign is bracing for a possible swing of black voters toward her chief rival, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, by focusing more attention on Hispanic voters. With one eye on the nomination and the other on the general election, Clinton, 59, has seeded her staff with Spanish-speaking operatives, starting with Patti Solis Doyle, her campaign manager.

``I'm taking this one personally,'' Solis Doyle said. ``In 2004, Republicans made some inroads with the Hispanic vote. It's our intention to get that vote back.''

Hispanics may play a key role in the 2008 Democratic nominating process as well. Obama, 46, whose father was Kenyan, will ``probably draw about 60 percent of the African-American community,'' said Representative Edolphus Towns, a black Democrat from New York who has endorsed Clinton. To win, ``she's going to have to beat him in the Hispanic community.''

Adding to the Calendar

Party leaders added two Hispanic-laden states to the front of their nominating calendar: Nevada, where they make up about 20 percent of Democrats, and Florida, where they account for about 10 percent, according to Matt Barreto, a political scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle. They will likely join Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina as contests that can slingshot a candidate to the nomination.

``Hispanics have an unprecedented opportunity to be a decisive factor in Nevada and Florida,'' said Luis Navarro, manager of Delaware Senator Joe Biden's presidential bid.

The campaigns themselves don't know how many Hispanics will vote in primaries and caucuses, which historically see low participation by Latinos. ``We just don't have numbers on that,'' said Hilarie Grey, Clinton's spokeswoman in Nevada.

To complicate matters, the Hispanic vote isn't monolithic. In Florida, for instance, Cuban-Americans in southern counties lean Republican. Elsewhere in the state, a growing population of Puerto Ricans and non-Cuban Hispanics is voting Democratic.

Western Targets

More certain is the effect Hispanics will have in the general election, especially in three western states that Bush narrowly won in 2004: Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All three have expanding numbers of Latinos, with New Mexico's now at 31 percent of the population.
President George W. Bush captured more than 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, much
better than the 21 percent Republicans received in 1996.

After a divisive immigration debate, however, congressional Republicans saw a sharp decline in Hispanic support in 2006, with their share dropping to 30 percent, according to exit polls.
At the same time, overall Hispanic turnout rose to 8 percent of the electorate, up 33 percent from 2002, said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a Democratic advocacy group in Washington.

Arizona, which Bush carried with 55 percent of the vote in 2004, might also be in play along with Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, said Moses Mercado, who directed Senator John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign in New Mexico. ``Even if turnout stays the same and Hispanics vote like they did in 2006, not 2004, we win all those states,'' he said.

Clinton's Edge

In both the primary and general election, Clinton has a distinct advantage. ``It's all part of our long drawn-out love affair with Bill,'' said Representative Jose Serrano of New York, who has endorsed Senator Clinton. A recent AP/Ipsos survey of Hispanics gave her 45 percent, Obama 17 percent and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, whose mother is Mexican, 5 percent.

``We never expect to be ahead in national polls,'' said Jen Psaki, an Obama spokeswoman. She said Obama has appeared on Hispanic media, including radio and TV shows on the Univision network. He also has the endorsement of many Latino leaders in Illinois, among them
Representative Luis Gutierrez, Obama's sole Hispanic backer in Congress.

``When you know him, you like him,'' said Gutierrez. ``He has lots of room for growth.''

Even in Iowa

The scramble for Hispanic votes has even reached Iowa, where Latinos make up roughly 4 percent of the electorate. Earlier this summer, several campaigns tried to enlist Alfred Ramirez, executive director of Diversity Focus, a minority advocacy group in Cedar Rapids. He signed with Senator Clinton.

Clinton seems to be pressing her advantage. She has designated a press secretary for Hispanic media, Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli, as well as a Hispanic outreach director, Laura Peña. Sergio Bendixen is conducting Latino polling.

Meanwhile, the Democrats' lone Hispanic candidate, New Mexico's Richardson, has identified his own ethnic liability: an Anglo last name. Richardson will gain traction ``once Hispanics recognize and realize that one of their own is a candidate,'' said Rick Hernandez, a campaign adviser.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hans Nichols in Washington at hnichols2@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 15, 2007 00:00 EDT

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